Prime Minister Mark Carney wrapped up the EU-Canada Summit in Montreal with an ambitious objective—that Canada’s prospective “associate” membership of the EU would be clearly defined in 2027. As Carney joins European leaders in Dublin for the European Political Community meeting, the question is how both sides will deliver on those ambitions.  

“Associate membership” currently has no legal status under EU law and comes with 27 Member State opinions. It is a high-profile ask likely to encounter a minefield of competing European political interests. Yet behind the debate about what “associate member” should mean lie some potential wins for both sides. With 46 distinct points, the final summit declaration sets out a lengthy but necessary agenda for a relationship with historically unrealized potential. The next six months of negotiations will test whether the commitments made in Montreal can translate into tangible outcomes—and a more strategic Canada-EU partnership.  Five strategic takeaways help identify where progress matters most, and where political ambition could outpace delivery.  

 A Critical Step on Critical Minerals 

The deal between Canada and the European Investment Bank (EIB) to facilitate European investment in Canadian critical mineral projects is the summit’s most concrete win. The Framework Agreement is significant for two reasons. The first is tangible. In recent years, the EIB has scaled up its investment in critical minerals to €1.2 billion annually, with a goal to finance €2 billion a year in critical raw material projects to secure European supply chains. Canadian projects will now be eligible for EIB financing. Beyond unlocking much needed European capital, the deal’s message is clear. Canada doesn’t simply “have what the world wants” but is also now considered a trusted supplier to join Europe’s supply chain at a time when such security plays a major role in national resilience. The deal demonstrates the credibility Canada currently enjoys in Europe and marks the first major step in putting promises of cooperation on critical minerals into practice. A key test for both Canada and Europe will be how quickly that cooperation can be scaled up as negotiations proceed through 2027. 

On liquefied natural gas (LNG), the earlier political push to ramp up exports to Europe—evident in the German-Canadian LNG deal and political rhetoric coming out of Ottawa, Edmonton, and now Victoria— isn’t prominent in the summit declaration. The declaration supports LNG trade but instead leaves its practical development to a long-term feasibility study for Canadian LNG exports to Europe. 

Such a study could still help strengthen Europe’s energy security, while advancing Canadian prosperity and solidifying European commitments to Canada—if it leads to action rather than delay. A major test is whether Canada can sustain the political will to further develop its pipeline infrastructure. This will require follow-through on new BC Premier Lorne Doerkson’s pledge to double natural gas exports in the next few years. It will also require the political courage to revive discussion of an East-West pipeline, an idea that has long been met with ambivalence from Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew and Quebec political parties—despite growing public support across the country. 

Finally, despite Canadian and European leaders’ emphasis on the role of Canadian resources in Europe’s security, uncertainty remains over what carbon pricing Canadian aluminum—which appears on NATO’s list of 12 defence-critical raw materials—will be subject to under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). While Carney is reportedly seeking a CBAM exemption for Canadian resources, the EU has not agreed to one—or indicated what credits Canada may receive under CBAM for its existing carbon pricing. CBAM already provides for deductions reflecting carbon prices effectively paid abroad. Clarifying how those rules apply to Canadian producers should be a priority in the coming negotiations.  

“Associate Membership” Meets Hard CETA Realities 

Another risk following the Montreal summit is that ambitious declarations won’t be matched by concrete policy commitments. This risk is most apparent in the debate over what “associate membership” would mean in practice. While the summit declaration commits Canada and the EU to “ever-closer association” – Carney’s stated wish to define what associate membership means by the next summit in 2027 is a tall order. Given the EU treaties provide no established framework for “associate membership”, defining it would require unanimous approval by all 27 EU Member States. The challenge is that many powerful Member States, including Germany—are opposed. When this became clear during Carney’s visit to the European Parliament in September, he walked back his commitment to the term. Perhaps one of the more surprising takeaways of the Montreal summit is that the “associate membership” discussion remains alive. 

Underscoring this gap between ambition and implementation, the summit joint statement repeatedly commits to working through the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) framework—rather than setting out a more ambitious institutional arrangement. Ten EU Member States have yet to ratify CETA, a reminder of the political obstacles that remain. 

With all this in mind, the EU-Canada “Alliance for the Future” is starting to look like a “CETA+”: arrangement. This in itself would be a success, especially with the boosts to joint research funding and financing. Pursuing the “associate” label in the face of French and German opposition risks burning through Canada’s current political capital in Europe for little to no gain, while also casting a shadow over clear policy wins. Pursuing the “associate” label further risks dressing a strategic success up as a political failure. 

A Stronger Role in Ukraine and European Security 

Although rumoured for months, the summit’s joint statement confirmed and welcomed Canada’s intention to join the Ukraine Support Loan (USL). EU countries agreed to the €90 billion loan in December 2025 after talks broke down on how to fully repurpose over €200 billion in frozen Russian assets. The loan, financed by joint debt issued by most EU Member States, provides Ukraine with a crucial interim lifeline to finance its defence. Until now, the UK was the only non-EU country participating. Canada has now confirmed it will join the USL with $800 million. Canada’s recently signed 100-year deal with Ukraine commits it to supporting the full repurposing of Russia’s frozen assets—making it the second G7 country after Germany to explicitly push for the measure. Foreign Minister Anita Anand’s recent announcement of tighter Canadian measures on Russia adds to an already world-leading sanctions registry that lists state institutions such as the Russian Central Bank itself—something few other jurisdictions currently do. Canada can show additional leadership by using recently passed powers to locate $22 billion in frozen assets potentially in Canadian accounts. But the confirmation in Montreal of Canada’s USL participation is an interim step that demonstrates Canadian commitment to Ukraine and European security, builds transatlantic credibility and goodwill, and positions Canada to exercise further leadership on Euro-Atlantic security. 

Canada as a “Three-Ocean” Connector 

The summit signalled that Canada may be prepared to make better use of one of its greatest assets—its geography. The declaration sets out intentions to deepen cooperation in the Arctic, as well as on the infrastructure that connects Europe and Asia through Canada, including ports and undersea cables. Canada’s Arctic offers potential new connections between Europe and Asia, but their viability depends on Canada and its allies being able to secure the infrastructure supporting them. Concrete advances in defence cooperation will be critical, particularly on emerging technologies and autonomous systems with the range and endurance to patrol the vast Arctic theatre as legacy assets like submarines cannot do this alone.  

The summit declaration points to a new role for Canada in bringing Europe and the Indo-Pacific together on economic and security cooperation. Ultimately, however, success depends not simply on ongoing EU-Canada negotiations, but on how well Canada engages with partners across the Indo-Pacific region. This means finding ways to involve Indo-Pacific countries with Arctic interests in Arctic security discussions, including through new diplomatic mechanisms to do so. With its technological know-how and abundant energy resources, Canada is also well-placed to build partnerships with both Europe and Asia on technology and AI. 

A New Axis for Tech and AI Innovation? 

Developing and securing undersea cables would help lay the groundwork for further EU-Canada cooperation on technology and AI. The summit declaration commits Canada and the EU to reciprocal digital market access—including for cloud and AI services and infrastructure. Given favourable energy prices and availability in Canada, this will likely require Canada to advance its domestic discussions on digital infrastructure like data centres—a national discussion that still finds itself in its relatively early stages, despite clear enthusiasm from provinces like Alberta and Ontario. The declaration also emphasizes the role of small and medium-sized enterprises, but their ability to contribute will depend in part on the degree to which Canada and the EU can mobilize substantial innovation capital—including through programs like Horizon Europe. 

Ultimately, the Montreal summit may well be the most closely followed EU-Canada Summit ever, suggesting that both sides understand that the relationship deserves an unprecedented amount of energy and focus. Yet high-profile political attention and rhetoric, while encouraging, are not themselves proof that either side is yet prepared to make the commitments and investments needed to realize the full potential of the partnership. Canada recognizes many of the best cards it has to play. Now it must also be clear-eyed about how exactly to play them to achieve lasting strategic outcomes that go beyond a political victory. 

Aaron Gasch Burnett is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Strategic Statecraft in Vancouver and at the European Resilience Initiative Center in Berlin.